Chesterfield 1–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

A. Dobra 15'

W. Wright 64'

8/9/2024

League Two · Round 1SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Chesterfield45%

×Draw24%

Swindon Town31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.30

Chesterfield

1.63

Swindon Town

1.30

Chesterfield creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.69

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.69

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.38

Swindon Town

1.56

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

69%

Chesterfield or Swindon Town

76%

Draw or Swindon Town

55%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

23%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

80%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

48%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

22%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

37%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

60%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chesterfield scores more

45%

level

24%

Swindon Town scores more

31%

Chesterfield at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Dobra

Chesterfield · M

7.3

Match Events

15'

17'

42'

55'

62'

P. Glatzel← A. Drinan

62'

T. Sobowale← J. King

64'

W. Wright↳ M. Freckleton

66'

Will Wright

72'

J. Berry-McNally← R. Colclough

72'

J. Cain← N. Ofoborh

73'

L. Mandeville← M. Jacobs

85'

J. Quigley← W. Grigg

85'

K. Drummond← A. Dobra

89'

Ollie Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldSwindon

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots6

5Corners0

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots6

4On Target1

3Off Target4

6Blocked1

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

556Total Passes313

463Accurate Passes220

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards5