Chesterfield 1–2 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Swindon Town

J. Fleck 10'

J. Snowdon 61'

F. Munroe 8'

11/29/2025

League Two · Round 18SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Chesterfield42%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.36

Chesterfield

1.57

Swindon Town

1.36

Chesterfield creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.69

creates per match

1.34

1.38

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.69

Swindon Town

1.34

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.38

Swindon Town

1.46

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less

Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

67%

Chesterfield or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

58%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

21%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

79%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

46%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

21%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

39%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

56%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chesterfield scores more

42%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

33%

Chesterfield at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Fleck

Chesterfield · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

F. Munroe↳ O. Palmer

10'

J. Fleck↳ C. Dunkley

39'

Devan Tanton

59'

P. Glatzel← O. Palmer

61'

J. Snowdon

63'

Aaron Drinan

68'

A. Lewis← L. Gordon

68'

J. Berry-McNally← D. Duffy

69'

Finley Munroe

69'

V. Daley-Campbell← D. Tanton

69'

R. Darcy← T. Naylor

71'

J. McGregor← J. Snowdon

75'

Paul Glatzel

79'

W. Dickson← D. Markanday

80'

80'

84'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldSwindon

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots11

1.35Expected Goals (xG)1.96

7Corners3

9Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

2On Target5

5Off Target4

6Blocked2

11Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

478Total Passes370

350Accurate Passes242

73%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2