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Swindon Town vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
14:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
8/22/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 2County Ground
Big match
43%
Swindon Town
model favours
43%25%32%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Swindon Town43%
×Draw25%
Cheltenham32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.52
Cheltenham
1.28

Swindon Town creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.64
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.55
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
68%
Swindon Town or Cheltenham
75%
Draw or Cheltenham
57%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
21%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
45%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
20%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
37%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
57%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swindon Town scores more
43%
level
25%
Cheltenham scores more
32%

Swindon Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Cheltenham
Balanced
54%Possession48%
72%Pass accuracy65%
12.6Shots10.5
1.50xGBiggest gap1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownCheltenham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Swindon Town
2
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 60%
2–00–13–33–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town vs Cheltenham — Match Preview

Swindon Town face Cheltenham on August 22, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Swindon Town host Cheltenham at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.