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Swindon Town vs Cheltenham — League Two 2025

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
O. Clarke 88'
K. Tshimanga 67' (pen)
W. Wright 45+3'
W. Wright 54' (OG)
T. Dieng 48'
J. Thomas 8'
3/15/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 37The Nigel Eady County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Swindon Town54%
×Draw22%
Cheltenham24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.96
Cheltenham
1.25

Swindon Town creates 57% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.87
Cheltenham
1.22

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.27
Cheltenham
2.04

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
76%
Swindon Town or Cheltenham
78%
Draw or Cheltenham
46%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
31%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
86%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
58%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
31%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
71%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
36%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
69%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.87 + Cheltenham defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.96

Cheltenham attack 1.22 + Swindon Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Swindon Town scores more
54%
level
22%
Cheltenham scores more
24%

Swindon Town at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
W. WrightSwindon TownSwindon Town · D
8.2

Match Events

8'
J. Thomas↳ S. Stubbs
34'
Sam Stubbs
45+3'
W. Wright
48'
T. Dieng
54'
W. WrightOwn goal
58'
Valintino Adedokun
59'
M. Taylor← G. Miller
63'
Tom Bradbury
66'
Tom Bradbury
66'
Tom Bradbury
67'
K. TshimangaPenalty
68'
T. Backwell← A. Hay
71'
Ollie Clarke
77'
J. Westley← G. Kilkenny
79'
Kabongo Tshimanga
79'
Timothée Dieng
87'
N. Ofoborh← J. McGregor
87'
J. Cotterill← T. Nichols
87'
P. Glatzel← K. Tshimanga
88'
O. Clarke↳ H. Smith
90+3'
E. Williams← J. Thomas

Possession

64%Swindon

Shots

15Swindon

Pass accuracy

57%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonCheltenham
Overview
64%Possession36%
15Total Shots6
7Corners2
9Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots6
6On Target2
2Off Target2
7Blocked2
7Inside Box3
8Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
373Total Passes209
255Accurate Passes106
68%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls16
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

League Two: Swindon Town 3–3 Cheltenham

Swindon Town and Cheltenham drew 3-3 in League Two on March 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Thomas (8'), W. Wright (45+3', 54' o.g.), T. Dieng (48'), K. Tshimanga (67' pen), O. Clarke (88').

Swindon Town controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Nigel Eady County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.