Swindon Town 0–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

E. Archer 59'

12/9/2025

League Two · Round 19County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Swindon Town54%

×Draw22%

Cheltenham24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.25

Swindon Town

1.96

Cheltenham

1.25

Swindon Town creates 57% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

1.87

creates per match

1.22

1.27

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.87

Cheltenham

1.22

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.27

Cheltenham

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

76%

Swindon Town or Cheltenham

78%

Draw or Cheltenham

46%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

31%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

86%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

58%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

31%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

71%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

69%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.87 + Cheltenham defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.96

Cheltenham attack 1.22 + Swindon Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Swindon Town scores more

54%

level

22%

Cheltenham scores more

24%

Swindon Town at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

F. Munroe

Swindon Town · D

7.7

Match Events

41'

Tom Nichols

45+1'

Jamie Knight-Lebel

46'

O. Palmer← B. Bodin

58'

P. Ehibhatiomhan← F. Mabete

59'

E. Archer

68'

Arkell Jude-Boyd

80'

J. Ball← T. Nichols

80'

D. Oldaker← J. McGregor

83'

G. Harmon← H. Adelakun

90+5'

Joe Day

90+2'

L. Kinsella← E. Archer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonCheltenham

Overview

63%Possession37%

9Total Shots11

6Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots11

0On Target4

5Off Target6

4Blocked1

4Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

433Total Passes240

307Accurate Passes140

71%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2