Swindon Town 1–2 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

T. Shade 80'

R. Edmondson 90+6'

J. Armer 51'

3/11/2023

League Two · Round 36The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Swindon Town45%

×Draw26%

Carlisle29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.15

Swindon Town

1.50

Carlisle

1.15

Swindon Town creates 30% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 115 away

1.65

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.65

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.22

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

71%

Swindon Town or Carlisle

74%

Draw or Carlisle

55%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

22%

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

44%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

19%

Carlisle 1+ goals

68%

Carlisle 2+ goals

32%

Carlisle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

61%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Swindon Town scores more

45%

level

26%

Carlisle scores more

29%

Swindon Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Moxon

Carlisle · M

7.6

Match Events

9'

17'

51'

56'

58'

65'

66'

M. Lavinier← C. Austin

66'

R. Darcy← J. Cain

69'

R. Edmondson← J. Garner

69'

J. Gibson← A. McCalmont

70'

Thomas Clayton

76'

Owen Moxon

80'

T. Shade

81'

L. Jephcott← J. Wakeling

81'

J. Gordon← O. Patrick

87'

Tyrese Shade

90+6'

R. Edmondson↳ O. Moxon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonCarlisle

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots7

3Corners6

10Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots7

2On Target3

4Off Target1

4Blocked3

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

483Total Passes252

354Accurate Passes131

73%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1