Carlisle 1–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Swindon Town

K. Dennis 45'

J. Wakeling 22'

8/13/2022

League Two · Round 3Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle37%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

Carlisle

1.35

Swindon Town

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 139 away

1.26

creates per match

1.49

1.21

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Swindon Town

1.49

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Swindon Town

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

63%

Carlisle or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

63%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

17%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

74%

Carlisle 2+ goals

39%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

39%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

50%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carlisle scores more

37%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

37%

Carlisle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Gibson

Carlisle · M

7.6

Match Events

19'

22'

45'

63'

70'

71'

J. Stretton← O. Patrick

73'

T. Adeloye← J. Wakeling

77'

T. Shade← J. Williams

85'

S. Hilton← J. Gibson

90+4'

Angus MacDonald

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleSwindon

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots12

5Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots12

5On Target6

8Off Target3

6Blocked3

12Inside Box9

7Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

315Total Passes452

187Accurate Passes330

59%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2