Swindon Town 3–2 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cambridge United

D. Oldaker 53'

H. Smith 34'

A. Drinan 32'

S. Kaikai 64'

J. Brophy 4'

8/9/2025

League Two · Round 2County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Swindon Town34%

×Draw25%

Cambridge United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.48

Swindon Town

1.31

Cambridge United

1.48

Cambridge United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.62

creates per match

1.49

1.48

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.62

Cambridge United

1.49

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Cambridge United

1.01

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more

Cambridge United-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

59%

Swindon Town or Cambridge United

75%

Draw or Cambridge United

66%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

38%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

77%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

43%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

45%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Cambridge United defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swindon Town scores more

34%

level

25%

Cambridge United scores more

41%

Cambridge United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Drinan

Swindon Town · F

8.0

Match Events

4'

J. Brophy

32'

A. Drinan

34'

H. Smith↳ J. Snowdon

51'

E. Kachunga← L. Bennett

51'

P. Mpanzu← S. McLoughlin

53'

D. Oldaker↳ F. Munroe

64'

S. Kaikai

69'

P. Glatzel← D. Oldaker

74'

F. Mabete← T. Nichols

74'

B. Ameen← J. Snowdon

81'

R. Loft← K. Watts

82'

Finley Munroe

89'

D. Butterworth← F. Munroe

90+6'

Daniel Butterworth

90+6'

James Brophy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonCambridge

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots10

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.58

2Corners7

11Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target4

3Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

243Total Passes352

135Accurate Passes268

56%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

League Two: Swindon Town 3–2 Cambridge United

Swindon Town beat Cambridge United 3-2 in League Two on August 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Brophy (4'), A. Drinan (32'), H. Smith (34'), D. Oldaker (53'), S. Kaikai (64').

Cambridge United controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at County Ground in Swindon.

Swindon Town vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Swindon Town 3–2 Cambridge United