Cambridge United 0–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swindon Town

J. Yates 27'

9/21/2019

League Two · Round 10Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cambridge United54%

×Draw24%

Swindon Town22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.97

Cambridge United

1.68

Swindon Town

0.97

Cambridge United creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.80

creates per match

1.22

0.73

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.80

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.73

Swindon Town

1.56

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.56scores more

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

78%

Cambridge United or Swindon Town

76%

Draw or Swindon Town

46%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

29%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

81%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

50%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

24%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

62%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

25%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

71%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.80 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Cambridge United defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cambridge United scores more

54%

level

24%

Swindon Town scores more

22%

Cambridge United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. McCormick

Swindon Town · G

8.0

Match Events

15'

K. Woolery← K. Anderson

27'

40'

60'

63'

66'

M. Doughty← L. Isgrove

67'

J. Ibehre← E. Ward

72'

A. May← D. Rose

73'

G. Maris← J. Roles

86'

A. Dallas← S. Smith

90'

Eoin Doyle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeSwindon

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots8

5Corners6

10Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots8

4On Target3

1Off Target2

2Blocked3

7Inside Box5

0Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

346Total Passes377

263Accurate Passes285

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3