Swindon Town 2–0 Bromley: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bromley

A. Drinan 31'

O. Palmer 7'

9/27/2025

League Two · Round 10County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Swindon Town43%

×Draw24%

Bromley32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.37

Swindon Town

1.62

Bromley

1.37

Swindon Town creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

1.19

1.55

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.64

Bromley

1.19

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.55

Bromley

1.60

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more

Bromley+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

68%

Swindon Town or Bromley

76%

Draw or Bromley

57%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

22%

Bromley wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

80%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

48%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

22%

Bromley 1+ goals

75%

Bromley 2+ goals

40%

Bromley 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

57%

Bromley (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Bromley defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bromley attack 1.19 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swindon Town scores more

43%

level

24%

Bromley scores more

32%

Swindon Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

O. Palmer

Swindon Town · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

O. Palmer↳ J. Snowdon

31'

A. Drinan

46'

J. McGregor← J. Snowdon

46'

O. Sowunmi← D. Elerewe

46'

B. Thompson← N. Kabamba

46'

W. Hondermarck← M. Ifill

64'

Jamie Knight-Lebel

72'

T. Wilson-Brown← D. Butterworth

72'

B. Bodin← O. Palmer

73'

B. Ilunga← I. Odutayo

80'

D. Oldaker← R. Tafazolli

83'

Aaron Drinan

87'

P. Ehibhatiomhan← A. Drinan

88'

Ashley Charles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonBromley

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots15

6Corners4

13Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots15

6On Target2

2Off Target10

3Blocked3

8Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

349Total Passes384

249Accurate Passes274

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

League Two: Swindon Town 2–0 Bromley

Swindon Town beat Bromley 2-0 in League Two on September 27, 2025.

Goals: O. Palmer (7'), A. Drinan (31').

Bromley controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at County Ground in Swindon.

Swindon Town vs Bromley — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Swindon Town 2–0 Bromley