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Bromley vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
O. Sowunmi 69'
R. Longelo 72'
12/29/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bromley54%
×Draw23%
Swindon Town23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.82
Swindon Town
1.12

Bromley creates 63% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bromley
2.27
Swindon Town
1.28

allows per match

Bromley
0.96
Swindon Town
1.38

finishing

Bromley-0.47scores less
Swindon Town+0.08on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
77%
Bromley or Swindon Town
77%
Draw or Swindon Town
46%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
30%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
84%
Bromley 2+ goals
54%
Bromley 3+ goals
27%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
67%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
31%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
70%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.96 · 10 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.27 + Swindon Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.82

Swindon Town attack 1.28 + Bromley defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bromley scores more
54%
level
23%
Swindon Town scores more
23%

Bromley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
B. ThompsonBromleyBromley · M
7.9

Match Events

20'
Nnamdi Ofoborh
28'
Gavin Kilkenny
38'
Rosaire Longelo
53'
O. Olomola← C. Congreve
62'
H. Smith← P. Glatzel
62'
O. Clarke← G. Kilkenny
67'
Ollie Clarke
69'
O. Sowunmi↳ I. Odutayo
72'
R. Longelo↳ N. Ofoborh
77'
J. Cotterill← D. Butterworth
79'
L. Leigh← J. Arthurs
80'
Kamarl Grant
83'
K. Tshimanga← A. Drinan
85'
Omar Sowunmi
90'
J. Thomas← C. Reynolds

Possession

47%Bromley

Shots

12Bromley

Pass accuracy

49%Bromley

Statistics

BromleySwindon
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots17
4Corners3
14Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots17
1On Target3
6Off Target10
5Blocked4
8Inside Box9
4Outside Box8
Passing
47%Possession53%
247Total Passes279
130Accurate Passes155
53%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

League Two: Bromley 1–1 Swindon Town

Bromley and Swindon Town drew 1-1 in League Two on December 29, 2024.

Goals: O. Sowunmi (69'), R. Longelo (72').

Swindon Town controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.