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Swindon Town vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
J. Yates 61'
E. Simms 44'
4/2/2021League OneLeague One · Round 39The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swindon Town33%
×Draw27%
Blackpool40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.15
Blackpool
1.29

Blackpool creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 134 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.10
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Blackpool
1.20

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
60%
Swindon Town or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
67%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
13%
Blackpool wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
68%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
32%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
11%
Blackpool 1+ goals
72%
Blackpool 2+ goals
37%
Blackpool 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
45%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swindon Town scores more
33%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
40%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
D. GrétarssonBlackpoolBlackpool · D
7.5

Match Events

18'
Kenneth Dougall
44'
E. Simms↳ J. Lawrence-Gabriel
61'
J. Yates↳ D. Grétarsson
67'
D. Mitchell← E. Simms
71'
Joel Grant← S. Twine
71'
T. Smith← P. Caddis
71'
J. Grounds← D. Thompson
71'
H. Hope← B. Pitman
77'
J. Thorniley← D. Grétarsson
85'
E. Robson← S. Kaikai

Possession

42%Swindon

Shots

4Swindon

Pass accuracy

47%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonBlackpool
Overview
42%Possession58%
4Total Shots10
4Corners2
5Fouls12
Shots
4Total Shots10
1On Target2
3Off Target6
0Blocked2
3Inside Box5
1Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
388Total Passes536
260Accurate Passes410
67%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Blackpool

Blackpool beat Swindon Town 2-0 in League One on April 2, 2021.

Goals: E. Simms (44'), J. Yates (61').

Blackpool controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 4.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.