Blackpool 2–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

C. Hamilton 47', 41'

9/19/2020

League One · Round 2Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Blackpool48%

×Draw24%

Swindon Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Blackpool

1.71

Swindon Town

1.25

Blackpool creates 37% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 30 away

1.53

creates per match

1.40

1.09

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Swindon Town

1.40

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Swindon Town

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

72%

Blackpool or Swindon Town

76%

Draw or Swindon Town

52%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

26%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

82%

Blackpool 2+ goals

51%

Blackpool 3+ goals

24%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

71%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

36%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

63%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Swindon Town defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Swindon Town attack 1.40 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackpool scores more

48%

level

24%

Swindon Town scores more

28%

Blackpool at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Hamilton

Blackpool · F

8.9

Match Events

11'

Grant Ward

31'

Joel Grant← J. Smith

41'

C. Hamilton

47'

C. Hamilton↳ O. Turton

58'

B. Pitman← T. Smith

63'

Diallang Jaiyesimi

64'

H. Hope← J. Payne

71'

M. Williams← K. Anderson

78'

D. Kemp← B. Lubala

83'

G. Madine← J. Yates

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolSwindon

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots10

6Corners1

18Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target2

7Off Target3

3Blocked5

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

387Total Passes463

265Accurate Passes329

68%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3