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Swift Hesperange vs Progres Niederkorn — National Division 2018

Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
8/17/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 3Stade Alphonse Theis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Swift Hesperange45%
×Draw24%
Progres Niederkorn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swift Hesperange
1.72
Progres Niederkorn
1.40

Swift Hesperange creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 111 away

creates per match

Swift Hesperange
2.19
Progres Niederkorn
1.68

allows per match

Swift Hesperange
1.11
Progres Niederkorn
1.25

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw
69%
Swift Hesperange or Progres Niederkorn
76%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
55%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
24%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
82%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
51%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
25%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
75%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
41%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
59%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 90 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.19 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.68 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more
45%
level
24%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
31%

Swift Hesperange at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swift Hesperange vs Progres Niederkorn

Progres Niederkorn beat Swift Hesperange 4-1 in National Division on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Theis in Hesperange.