Progres Niederkorn 1–1 Swift Hesperange

Progres Niederkorn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Swift Hesperange

12/11/2024

National Division · Round 15Stade Jos Haupert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Progres Niederkorn38%

×Draw23%

Swift Hesperange38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Progres NiederkornExpected goals in this matchSwift Hesperange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.60

Progres Niederkorn

1.61

Swift Hesperange

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

2.12

creates per match

2.10

1.10

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn

2.12

Swift Hesperange

2.10

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn

1.10

Swift Hesperange

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

Swift Hesperange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw

62%

Progres Niederkorn or Swift Hesperange

77%

Draw or Swift Hesperange

62%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+

19%

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals

80%

Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals

48%

Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals

22%

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

80%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

47%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)

50%

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.12 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.61

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more

38%

level

23%

Swift Hesperange scores more

38%

Progres Niederkorn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff