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Swift Hesperange vs Fola Esch — National Division 2018

Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fola Esch
Fola Esch
11/3/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 12Stade Alphonse Theis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Swift Hesperange54%
×Draw21%
Fola Esch25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swift Hesperange
2.13
Fola Esch
1.38

Swift Hesperange creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 97 away

creates per match

Swift Hesperange
2.19
Fola Esch
1.65

allows per match

Swift Hesperange
1.11
Fola Esch
2.06

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par
Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

Fola Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw
75%
Swift Hesperange or Fola Esch
79%
Draw or Fola Esch
46%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
33%
Fola Esch wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
88%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
63%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
35%
Fola Esch 1+ goals
75%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
40%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
69%
Fola Esch (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 90 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.19 + Fola Esch defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fola Esch attack 1.65 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more
54%
level
21%
Fola Esch scores more
25%

Swift Hesperange at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swift Hesperange vs Fola Esch

Swift Hesperange beat Fola Esch 2-0 in National Division on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Theis in Hesperange.