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Fola Esch vs Swift Hesperange — National Division 2018

Fola Esch
Fola Esch
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
9/17/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 6Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Fola Esch34%
×Draw23%
Swift Hesperange42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fola Esch
1.52
Swift Hesperange
1.71

Swift Hesperange creates 13% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 90 away

creates per match

Fola Esch
1.94
Swift Hesperange
2.10

allows per match

Fola Esch
1.32
Swift Hesperange
1.10

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par
Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

Swift Hesperange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw
58%
Fola Esch or Swift Hesperange
77%
Draw or Swift Hesperange
66%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+
16%
Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals
78%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
45%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
20%
Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
82%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
51%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)
45%
Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 96 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 1.94 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + Fola Esch defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fola Esch scores more
34%
level
23%
Swift Hesperange scores more
42%

Swift Hesperange at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fola Esch vs Swift Hesperange

Swift Hesperange beat Fola Esch 2-1 in National Division on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Émile Mayrisch in Esch-sur-Alzette.