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Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
FT
1 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
3/24/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion KS Świdniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik40%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.59
Garbarnia Kraków
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.24
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.73
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw
64%
Świdniczanka Świdnik or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
60%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
20%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
80%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
47%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
21%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
78%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
44%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
52%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
40%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
36%

Świdniczanka Świdnik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Świdniczanka Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Garbarnia Kraków

Świdniczanka Świdnik and Garbarnia Kraków drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion KS Świdniczanka in Świdnik.