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Garbarnia Kraków vs Świdniczanka Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
8/27/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków48%
×Draw23%
Świdniczanka Świdnik28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.77
Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.31

Garbarnia Kraków creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.71
Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.16

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.47
Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.82

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Świdniczanka Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
72%
Garbarnia Kraków or Świdniczanka Świdnik
77%
Draw or Świdniczanka Świdnik
52%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
26%
Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
83%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
53%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
26%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
73%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
38%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
63%
Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.71 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.16 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
48%
level
23%
Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
28%

Garbarnia Kraków at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garbarnia Kraków vs Świdniczanka Świdnik

Garbarnia Kraków beat Świdniczanka Świdnik 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.