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Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
3/8/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion KS Świdniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik40%
×Draw24%
Czarni Połaniec36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.63
Czarni Połaniec
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.24
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.73
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw
64%
Świdniczanka Świdnik or Czarni Połaniec
76%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
60%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
20%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
80%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
48%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
22%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
79%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
45%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
53%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.63

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
40%
level
24%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
36%

Świdniczanka Świdnik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Świdniczanka Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Czarni Połaniec

Świdniczanka Świdnik beat Czarni Połaniec 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion KS Świdniczanka in Świdnik.