Czarni Połaniec 2–1 Świdniczanka Świdnik

Czarni Połaniec

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Świdniczanka Świdnik

S. Szlek 64'

A. Skrzyniak 41'

J. Szymala 11'

10/11/2025

III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 12Stadion MKS Czarni Polaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Czarni Połaniec49%

×Draw23%

Świdniczanka Świdnik27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni PołaniecExpected goals in this matchŚwidniczanka Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.27

Czarni Połaniec

1.78

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.27

Czarni Połaniec creates 40% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

1.74

creates per match

1.16

1.38

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.74

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.16

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.38

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Świdniczanka Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw

73%

Czarni Połaniec or Świdniczanka Świdnik

77%

Draw or Świdniczanka Świdnik

51%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+

27%

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals

83%

Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals

53%

Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals

26%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals

72%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals

36%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)

64%

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.16 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more

49%

level

23%

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more

27%

Czarni Połaniec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Szymala

41'

A. Skrzyniak

64'

S. Szlek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff