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Swedru All Blacks vs Samartex — Premier League 2019

Swedru All Blacks
Swedru All Blacks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samartex
Samartex
2/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Swedru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Swedru All Blacks51%
×Draw31%
Samartex18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swedru All Blacks
1.18
Samartex
0.56

Swedru All Blacks creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Swedru All Blacks
1.24
Samartex
0.54

allows per match

Swedru All Blacks
0.59
Samartex
1.12

finishing

Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par
Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swedru All Blacks ↓

Samartex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Swedru All Blacks or draw
82%
Swedru All Blacks or Samartex
69%
Draw or Samartex
49%

Winning margin

Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+
23%
Samartex wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals
69%
Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals
33%
Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals
12%
Samartex 1+ goals
43%
Samartex 2+ goals
11%
Samartex 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)
74%
Samartex (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swedru All Blacks at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swedru All Blacks attack 1.24 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Samartex attack 0.54 + Swedru All Blacks defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Swedru All Blacks scores more
51%
level
31%
Samartex scores more
18%

Swedru All Blacks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Swedru All Blacks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swedru All Blacks vs Samartex

Swedru All Blacks beat Samartex 1-0 in Premier League on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Swedru Stadium in Agona Swedru.