Samartex 1–0 Swedru All Blacks: Result & Stats

Samartex

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swedru All Blacks

11/9/2025

Premier League · Round 9Samartex Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Samartex54%

×Draw29%

Swedru All Blacks17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamartexExpected goals in this matchSwedru All Blacks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.61

Samartex

1.32

Swedru All Blacks

0.61

Samartex creates 116% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.40

creates per match

0.76

0.46

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Samartex

1.40

Swedru All Blacks

0.76

allows per match

Samartex

0.46

Swedru All Blacks

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par

Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Swedru All Blacks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Samartex or draw

83%

Samartex or Swedru All Blacks

71%

Draw or Swedru All Blacks

46%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+

26%

Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals

73%

Samartex 2+ goals

38%

Samartex 3+ goals

15%

Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals

46%

Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals

13%

Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)

76%

Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Swedru All Blacks away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Swedru All Blacks defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Swedru All Blacks attack 0.76 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Samartex scores more

54%

level

29%

Swedru All Blacks scores more

17%

Samartex at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff