Swedru All Blacks 0–1 Bibiani Gold Stars

Swedru All Blacks

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bibiani Gold Stars

10/4/2025

Premier League · Round 4Swedru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Swedru All Blacks54%

×Draw28%

Bibiani Gold Stars18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swedru All BlacksExpected goals in this matchBibiani Gold Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.65

Swedru All Blacks

1.37

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.65

Swedru All Blacks creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

1.24

creates per match

0.70

0.59

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Swedru All Blacks

1.24

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.70

allows per match

Swedru All Blacks

0.59

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swedru All Blacks ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Swedru All Blacks or draw

82%

Swedru All Blacks or Bibiani Gold Stars

72%

Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars

46%

Winning margin

Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+

27%

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals

75%

Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals

40%

Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals

16%

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals

48%

Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals

14%

Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)

75%

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swedru All Blacks at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swedru All Blacks attack 1.24 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Swedru All Blacks defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Swedru All Blacks scores more

54%

level

28%

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more

18%

Swedru All Blacks at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Swedru All Blacks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff