Sweden U19 5–1 Slovenia U19: Result & Stats

Sweden U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Slovenia U19

H. Sultan 73'

A. Saeed 66'

B. Brantlind 61', 40', 36'

K. Kozar 64'

3/25/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League A - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sweden U1943%

×Draw25%

Slovenia U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U19Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.30

Sweden U19

1.54

Slovenia U19

1.30

Sweden U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.46

creates per match

1.06

1.54

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sweden U19

1.46

Slovenia U19

1.06

allows per match

Sweden U19

1.54

Slovenia U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sweden U19 or draw

68%

Sweden U19 or Slovenia U19

75%

Draw or Slovenia U19

57%

Winning margin

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

21%

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sweden U19 1+ goals

79%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

45%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

20%

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

73%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

37%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U19 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U19 attack 1.46 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Sweden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sweden U19 scores more

43%

level

25%

Slovenia U19 scores more

32%

Sweden U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

40'

46'

46'

58'

V. Machtig← B. Ceferin

61'

B. Brantlind

62'

A. Saeed← L. Arvidsson

64'

K. Kozar

66'

A. Saeed

69'

K. Juric← M. Simnovec

69'

A. Kumer Celik← M. Kujrakovic

71'

O. Klang← R. Arrhenius

71'

H. Sultan← K. Filling

71'

R. Bergvall← T. Lundbergh

73'

H. Sultan

78'

D. Gashi← B. Brantlind

Sweden

Slovenia

1

Golic

2

▼

Horvat

4

Novak

5

Mlekuz

3

▼

Simnovec

6

▼

Ceferin

10

Letonja

8

Kovacic

23

▼

Kujrakovi

9

Hocevar

11

▼

1

2

3

4

5

▼

Lundbergh

6

▼

Arrhenius

9

Sadaranga

8

Bronner

10

⚽3

▼

Brantlind

17

▼

Arvidsson

11

▼

Filling

Manager: A. Pettersson

62'▲A. Saeed←▼L. Arvidsson

71'▲O. Klang←▼R. Arrhenius

71'▲H. Sultan←▼K. Filling

71'▲R. Bergvall←▼T. Lundbergh

78'▲D. Gashi←▼B. Brantlind

Sweden U19 substitutes

12Marinkovic7Saeed13Lonnergard14Amini15Gashi16Klang18Wahlund19Sultan20Bergvall

Manager: M. Brečko

46'▲K. Kozar←▼F. Meznar

46'▲Z. Kranjc←▼U. Horvat

58'▲V. Machtig←▼B. Ceferin

69'▲K. Juric←▼M. Simnovec

69'▲A. Kumer Celik←▼M. Kujrakovic

Slovenia U19 substitutes

12Handanovic7Juric14Kerma15Celik16Machtig18Goga19Kozar20Kranjc