Slovenia U19 2–2 Sweden U19: Result & Stats

Slovenia U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sweden U19

M. Burin 54'

R. Simič 42'

J. Lahne 58'

B. Nygren 33'

11/13/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slovenia U1933%

×Draw22%

Sweden U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovenia U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.00

Slovenia U19

1.67

Sweden U19

2.00

Sweden U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

2.67

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Slovenia U19

2.00

Sweden U19

2.67

allows per match

Slovenia U19

1.33

Sweden U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Slovenia U19 or draw

54%

Slovenia U19 or Sweden U19

78%

Draw or Sweden U19

67%

Winning margin

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

16%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

81%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

50%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

23%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

86%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

59%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U19 attack 2.00 + Sweden U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sweden U19 attack 2.67 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovenia U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Sweden U19 scores more

46%

Sweden U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

B. Nygren

42'

R. Simič

46'

A. Andersson← N. Alexandersson

54'

M. Burin

57'

J. Lahne← E. Ahlstrand

57'

L. Borgström← J. Hedenquist

58'

J. Lahne

83'

Z. Repas← M. Mutavčić

Slovenia

Sweden

1

Andersson

5

Olsson

4

Andersson

2

▼

20

3

8

11

▼

Alexander

6

Mujanic

15

▼

Ahlstrand

14

⚽

Nygren

1

Gril

8

Urbančič

4

⚽

2

5

10

6

17

▼

Mutavčić

9

Prelec

11

⚽

Simič

19

Cipot

Manager: A. Šalja

83'▲Z. Repas←▼M. Mutavčić

Slovenia U19 substitutes

20Repas15Feratovič12Jurca16Markuš13Pavlovič7Pečar3Španring14Kočar18Koritnik

Manager: P. Wennberg

46'▲A. Andersson←▼N. Alexandersson

57'▲J. Lahne←▼E. Ahlstrand

57'▲L. Borgström←▼J. Hedenquist

Sweden U19 substitutes

19Andersson10Lahne17Borgström12Strindholm13Grandelius18Larsson7Larsson16Fallenius9Hajal