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Swarovski Tirol II vs Natters — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Swarovski Tirol II
Swarovski Tirol II
FT
5 – 1
Natters
Natters
8/14/2019Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 2Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Swarovski Tirol II64%
×Draw18%
Natters18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swarovski Tirol II
2.54
Natters
1.27

Swarovski Tirol II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Swarovski Tirol II
2.90
Natters
1.55

allows per match

Swarovski Tirol II
1.00
Natters
2.18

finishing

Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par
Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swarovski Tirol II ↓

Natters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Swarovski Tirol II or draw
82%
Swarovski Tirol II or Natters
82%
Draw or Natters
36%

Winning margin

Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+
43%
Natters wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals
92%
Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals
72%
Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals
46%
Natters 1+ goals
72%
Natters 2+ goals
36%
Natters 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)
78%
Natters (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swarovski Tirol II at home — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.90 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.54

Natters attack 1.55 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Swarovski Tirol II scores more
64%
level
18%
Natters scores more
18%

Swarovski Tirol II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Swarovski Tirol II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Swarovski Tirol II 5–1 Natters

Swarovski Tirol II beat Natters 5-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Gernot Langes Stadion in Wattens.