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Natters vs Swarovski Tirol II — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Natters
Natters
CANC
00:00
Swarovski Tirol II
Swarovski Tirol II
3/27/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 17Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Natters30%
×Draw21%
Swarovski Tirol II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Natters
1.67
Swarovski Tirol II
2.19

Swarovski Tirol II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 48 away

creates per match

Natters
1.93
Swarovski Tirol II
2.54

allows per match

Natters
1.84
Swarovski Tirol II
1.42

finishing

Natters+0.00on par
Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

Swarovski Tirol II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Natters or draw
50%
Natters or Swarovski Tirol II
79%
Draw or Swarovski Tirol II
70%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+
14%
Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals
81%
Natters 2+ goals
50%
Natters 3+ goals
23%
Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals
89%
Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals
64%
Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)
38%
Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

Swarovski Tirol II away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.54 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Natters scores more
30%
level
21%
Swarovski Tirol II scores more
50%

Swarovski Tirol II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Swarovski Tirol II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Natters vs Swarovski Tirol II — Match Preview

Natters face Swarovski Tirol II on March 27, 2020 in this Landesliga - Tirol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Natters host Swarovski Tirol II at Chairman-Arena Natters.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.