Swarovski Tirol II 3–1 Fügen: Result & Stats

Swarovski Tirol II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fügen

9/28/2025

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 7Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Swarovski Tirol II58%

×Draw20%

Fügen22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swarovski Tirol IIExpected goals in this matchFügen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.39

Swarovski Tirol II

2.33

Fügen

1.39

Swarovski Tirol II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 55 away

2.90

creates per match

1.78

1.00

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Swarovski Tirol II

2.90

Fügen

1.78

allows per match

Swarovski Tirol II

1.00

Fügen

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par

Fügen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swarovski Tirol II ↓

Fügen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Swarovski Tirol II or draw

78%

Swarovski Tirol II or Fügen

80%

Draw or Fügen

42%

Winning margin

Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+

37%

Fügen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals

90%

Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals

67%

Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals

41%

Fügen 1+ goals

75%

Fügen 2+ goals

40%

Fügen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)

72%

Fügen (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swarovski Tirol II at home — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Fügen away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.90 + Fügen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.33

Fügen attack 1.78 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Swarovski Tirol II scores more

58%

level

20%

Fügen scores more

22%

Swarovski Tirol II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Swarovski Tirol II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swarovski Tirol II vs Fügen

Swarovski Tirol II beat Fügen 3-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Gernot Langes Stadion in Wattens.

Swarovski Tirol II vs Fügen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Swarovski Tirol II vs Fügen