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Fügen vs Swarovski Tirol II — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Fügen
Fügen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Swarovski Tirol II
Swarovski Tirol II
10/20/2024Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 11Sportplatz Fügen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fügen40%
×Draw21%
Swarovski Tirol II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fügen
2.08
Swarovski Tirol II
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 48 away

creates per match

Fügen
2.73
Swarovski Tirol II
2.54

allows per match

Fügen
1.59
Swarovski Tirol II
1.42

finishing

Fügen+0.00on par
Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fügen ↓

Swarovski Tirol II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Fügen or draw
61%
Fügen or Swarovski Tirol II
79%
Draw or Swarovski Tirol II
60%

Winning margin

Fügen wins by 2+
22%
Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fügen 1+ goals
87%
Fügen 2+ goals
61%
Fügen 3+ goals
34%
Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals
87%
Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals
61%
Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Fügen (draw refunded)
50%
Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fügen at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Swarovski Tirol II away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fügen attack 2.73 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.08

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.54 + Fügen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fügen scores more
40%
level
21%
Swarovski Tirol II scores more
39%

Fügen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fügen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fügen vs Swarovski Tirol II

Swarovski Tirol II beat Fügen 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fügen in Fügen.