Swansea 4–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.29

Swansea

1.44

West Ham

1.29

Swansea creates 12% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 198 away

1.27

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

West Ham

1.21

allows per match

Swansea

1.38

West Ham

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

66%

Swansea or West Ham

74%

Draw or West Ham

59%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

19%

West Ham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

76%

Swansea 2+ goals

42%

Swansea 3+ goals

18%

West Ham 1+ goals

72%

West Ham 2+ goals

37%

West Ham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

55%

West Ham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

West Ham attack 1.21 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more

41%

level

26%

West Ham scores more

34%

Swansea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Ki Sung-Yeung

Swansea · M

9.0

Match Events

8'

Ki Sung-Yeung↳ A. Ayew

27'

S. Byram← W. Reid

32'

M. van der Hoorn↳ Ki Sung-Yeung

41'

Mark Noble

46'

M. Antonio← P. Evra

48'

A. King

63'

J. AyewPenalty

66'

Marko Arnautović

66'

Cheikhou Kouyaté

78'

N. Dyer← A. Ayew

78'

M. Antonio↳ A. Cresswell

81'

T. Carroll← A. King

90'

T. Abraham← S. Clucas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaWest

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots7

4Corners5

9Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots7

8On Target2

1Off Target1

0Blocked4

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

440Total Passes522

331Accurate Passes420

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5