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Swansea vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Swansea
Swansea
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
Llorente 89'
A. Carroll 90'
M. Antonio 78'
W. Reid 50'
A. Ayew 13'
12/26/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea41%
×Draw26%
West Ham34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.44
West Ham
1.29

Swansea creates 12% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 198 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
West Ham
1.21

allows per match

Swansea
1.38
West Ham
1.60

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
66%
Swansea or West Ham
74%
Draw or West Ham
59%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
19%
West Ham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
76%
Swansea 2+ goals
42%
Swansea 3+ goals
18%
West Ham 1+ goals
72%
West Ham 2+ goals
37%
West Ham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
55%
West Ham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

West Ham attack 1.21 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more
41%
level
26%
West Ham scores more
34%

Swansea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
W. ReidWest HamWest Ham · D
8.3

Match Events

13'
A. Ayew
46'
Llorente← Borja Bastón
46'
J. Montero← J. Fulton
50'
W. Reid↳ D. Payet
70'
N. Dyer← J. Montero
75'
E. Fernandes← A. Ayew
78'
M. Antonio↳ H. Nordtveit
84'
S. Feghouli← M. Antonio
89'
Llorente↳ N. Dyer
90+1'
A. Fletcher← A. Carroll
90'
A. Carroll↳ S. Feghouli

Possession

56%Swansea

Shots

14Swansea

Pass accuracy

52%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaWest
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots14
8Corners4
10Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots14
7On Target7
6Off Target4
1Blocked3
10Inside Box11
4Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
515Total Passes408
427Accurate Passes318
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Offsides1

Premier League: Swansea 1–4 West Ham

West Ham beat Swansea 4-1 in Premier League on December 26, 2016.

Goals: A. Ayew (13'), W. Reid (50'), M. Antonio (78'), Llorente (89'), A. Carroll (90').

Swansea controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.