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Swansea vs Watford — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
K. Sema 82'
10/24/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Swansea42%
×Draw27%
Watford30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.35
Watford
1.10

Swansea creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.31
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Swansea
1.20
Watford
1.39

finishing

Swansea+0.05on par
Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
70%
Swansea or Watford
73%
Draw or Watford
58%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
20%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
74%
Swansea 2+ goals
39%
Swansea 3+ goals
15%
Watford 1+ goals
67%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
58%
Watford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.31 + Watford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Watford attack 1.01 + Swansea defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swansea scores more
42%
level
27%
Watford scores more
30%

Swansea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. NgakiaWatfordWatford · D
8.0

Match Events

30'
Jake Livermore
46'
K. Sema← Matheus Martins
61'
O. Cooper← J. Paterson
61'
J. Tymon← L. Cullen
62'
M. Rajović← V. Bayo
62'
Y. Asprilla← T. Ince
73'
Wesley Hoedt
79'
L. Walsh← H. Ashby
82'
G. Chakvetadze← I. Koné
82'
K. Sema↳ Y. Asprilla
86'
Edo Kayembe
90+2'
M. Pollock← J. Lewis

Possession

59%Swansea

Shots

9Swansea

Pass accuracy

51%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaWatford
Overview
59%Possession41%
9Total Shots12
0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.80
6Corners4
7Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots12
3On Target5
4Off Target4
2Blocked3
4Inside Box7
5Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
542Total Passes387
438Accurate Passes297
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Championship: Swansea 0–1 Watford

Watford beat Swansea 1-0 in Championship on October 24, 2023.

Goals: K. Sema (82').

Swansea controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.