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Swansea vs Watford — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Watford
Watford
J. Lowe 67', 43'
T. Cleverley 20'
1/2/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Swansea42%
×Draw27%
Watford31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.33
Watford
1.10

Swansea creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.28
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Swansea
1.20
Watford
1.38

finishing

Swansea+0.02on par
Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
69%
Swansea or Watford
73%
Draw or Watford
58%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
19%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
74%
Swansea 2+ goals
38%
Swansea 3+ goals
15%
Watford 1+ goals
67%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
58%
Watford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.28 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Watford attack 1.01 + Swansea defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swansea scores more
42%
level
27%
Watford scores more
31%

Swansea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. LoweSwanseaSwansea · F
8.0

Match Events

20'
T. Cleverley↳ A. Gray
21'
Marc Guehi
33'
Jake Bidwell
42'
Nathaniel Chalobah
43'
J. Lowe↳ K. Smith
45'
Matt Grimes
46'
A. Masina← J. Ngakia
60'
J. Garner← N. Chalobah
67'
J. Lowe↳ K. Smith
85'
M. Gibbs-White← R. Manning
90'
Adam Masina
90'
W. Hughes← T. Cleverley

Possession

53%Swansea

Shots

13Swansea

Pass accuracy

50%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaWatford
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots11
6Corners8
12Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target3
6Off Target5
2Blocked3
9Inside Box9
4Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
446Total Passes370
358Accurate Passes292
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides4

Championship: Swansea 2–1 Watford

Swansea beat Watford 2-1 in Championship on January 2, 2021.

Goals: T. Cleverley (20'), J. Lowe (43', 67').

Swansea controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.