Swansea 1–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Utd

F. Bianchini 7'

H. Burrows 68' (pen)

R. Brewster 47'

1/21/2025

Championship · Round 28Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Swansea36%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Swansea

1.25

Sheffield Utd

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

1.31

creates per match

1.29

1.20

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Swansea

1.31

Sheffield Utd

1.29

allows per match

Swansea

1.20

Sheffield Utd

1.19

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Swansea+0.05on par

Sheffield Utd+0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

64%

Swansea or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

64%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

36%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

50%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.31 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheffield Utd attack 1.29 + Swansea defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Swansea scores more

36%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

36%

Swansea at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Hamer

Sheffield Utd · M

7.7

Match Events

7'

F. Bianchini

20'

Rhys Norrington-Davies

42'

Gustavo Hamer

46'

F. Seriki← A. Gilchrist

46'

S. McCallum← R. Norrington-Davies

46'

T. Campbell← A. Brooks

47'

R. Brewster

50'

Harry Darling

60'

K. Naughton← L. Cullen

62'

Sydie Peck

65'

Ronald

68'

Josh Tymon

68'

H. BurrowsPenalty

71'

B. Brereton← R. Brewster

83'

Anel Ahmedhodžić

87'

S. Parker← M. Peart-Harris

90+4'

Ben Cabango

90+5'

B. Blacker← C. OHare

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaSheffield

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots14

1.51Expected Goals (xG)1.77

1Corners2

11Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots14

5On Target3

2Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

422Total Passes343

341Accurate Passes262

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.85Goals Prevented0.85

Discipline

11Fouls20

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2