Sheffield Utd 3–0 Swansea: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Swansea

O. McBurnie 89'

J. Robinson 45'

S. Berge 21'

2/11/2023

Championship · Round 31Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 48+ matches

Sheffield Utd50%

×Draw25%

Swansea25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

Sheffield Utd

1.60

Swansea

1.05

Sheffield Utd creates 52% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 53 away

1.68

creates per match

1.10

1.00

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.68

Swansea

1.10

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.00

Swansea

1.52

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.12scores less

Swansea-0.02on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

75%

Sheffield Utd or Swansea

75%

Draw or Swansea

50%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

26%

Swansea wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

80%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

47%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

22%

Swansea 1+ goals

65%

Swansea 2+ goals

28%

Swansea 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

67%

Swansea (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.52 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.68 + Swansea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Swansea attack 1.10 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

50%

level

25%

Swansea scores more

25%

Sheffield Utd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

O. Norwood

Sheffield Utd · M

8.3

Match Events

21'

S. Berge↳ J. McAtee

45'

J. Robinson

54'

James McAtee

55'

M. Whittaker← L. Cullen

56'

Ben Cabango

64'

L. Cundle← O. Ntcham

70'

B. Osborn← J. McAtee

72'

O. McBurnie← B. Sharp

81'

87'

87'

88'

89'

90'

J. Fleck← M. Lowe

90+1'

C. Basham← J. Bogle

90+3'

I. Coulibaly← S. Berge

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldSwansea

Overview

42%Possession58%

18Total Shots12

4Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots12

9On Target3

5Off Target5

4Blocked4

13Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

351Total Passes497

271Accurate Passes400

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Swansea

Sheffield Utd beat Swansea 3-0 in Championship on February 11, 2023.

Goals: S. Berge (21'), J. Robinson (45'), O. McBurnie (89').

Swansea controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Swansea