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Swansea vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
R. Khadra 90+4'
9/13/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Swansea36%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.23
Sheffield Utd
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Sheffield Utd
1.27

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
63%
Swansea or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
64%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
16%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
71%
Swansea 2+ goals
35%
Swansea 3+ goals
13%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
71%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
35%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
50%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Swansea scores more
36%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
37%

Sheffield Utd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. KhadraSheffield UtdSheffield Utd · M
7.9

Match Events

47'
Anel Ahmedhodžić
63'
Matt Grimes
64'
O. Ntcham← J. Fulton
64'
J. Paterson← O. Cooper
71'
F. Stevens← M. Sorinola
73'
J. McAtee← T. Doyle
74'
R. Brewster← O. McBurnie
82'
R. Khadra← I. Ndiaye
90+4'
R. Khadra↳ R. Brewster

Possession

50%Swansea

Shots

12Swansea

Pass accuracy

50%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaSheffield
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots12
6Corners4
9Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots12
2On Target3
5Off Target7
5Blocked2
8Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
470Total Passes468
380Accurate Passes378
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Championship: Swansea 0–1 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Swansea 1-0 in Championship on September 13, 2022.

Goals: R. Khadra (90+4').

Swansea controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.