Swansea 1–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

O. McBurnie 65'

1/19/2019

Championship · Round 28Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Swansea36%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.24

Swansea

1.23

Sheffield Utd

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

1.27

creates per match

1.27

1.21

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Sheffield Utd

1.27

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Sheffield Utd

1.19

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

63%

Swansea or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

64%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

35%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

35%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

50%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Swansea scores more

36%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

37%

Sheffield Utd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Mulder

Swansea · G

7.9

Match Events

21'

C. Carter-Vickers← J. Rodon

37'

Oliver Norwood

45'

Enda Stevens

46'

D. James← W. Routledge

52'

65'

66'

74'

74'

81'

81'

L. Clarke← D. McGoldrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaSheffield

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots12

3Corners7

8Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked4

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

494Total Passes479

405Accurate Passes373

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls17

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3