Swansea 3–3 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Oxford United

L. Cullen 82'

Ronald 57'

Eom Ji-Sung 23'

P. Płacheta 90+3'

M. Helik 62'

G. Leigh 40'

5/3/2025

Championship · Round 46Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Swansea46%

×Draw26%

Oxford United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Swansea

1.46

Oxford United

1.09

Swansea creates 34% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 37 away

1.27

creates per match

0.97

1.21

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Oxford United

0.97

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Oxford United

1.65

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

72%

Swansea or Oxford United

74%

Draw or Oxford United

54%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

22%

Oxford United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

77%

Swansea 2+ goals

43%

Swansea 3+ goals

18%

Oxford United 1+ goals

66%

Oxford United 2+ goals

30%

Oxford United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

62%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Oxford United defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oxford United attack 0.97 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swansea scores more

46%

level

26%

Oxford United scores more

28%

Swansea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Tymon

Swansea · D

8.2

Match Events

23'

Eom Ji-Sung↳ J. Tymon

40'

G. Leigh

48'

Alex Matos

57'

Ronald↳ J. Tymon

62'

M. Helik

66'

P. Płacheta← S. Mills

67'

M. Harris← Ruben Rodrigues

70'

K. Naughton← J. Allen

70'

L. Cullen← Ž. Vipotnik

70'

O. Cooper← J. Key

77'

J. Bennett← G. Leigh

77'

M. Ferdinan← O. Romenij

81'

S. Parker← Ronald

82'

L. Cullen↳ J. Tymon

88'

B. Lloyd← Eom Ji-Sung

88'

S. Long← H. ter Avest

90+5'

Cameron Brannagan

90+3'

P. Płacheta↳ T. Goodrham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaOxford

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots10

1.17Expected Goals (xG)1.92

5Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target7

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

498Total Passes329

405Accurate Passes241

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.21Goals Prevented-0.21

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3