Oxford United 0–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swansea

12/29/2025

Championship · Round 24Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Oxford United41%

×Draw27%

Swansea32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.16

Oxford United

1.34

Swansea

1.16

Oxford United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 56 away

1.19

creates per match

1.09

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Oxford United

1.19

Swansea

1.09

allows per match

Oxford United

1.22

Swansea

1.49

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.13scores more

Swansea-0.04on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

68%

Oxford United or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

59%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

19%

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

74%

Oxford United 2+ goals

39%

Oxford United 3+ goals

15%

Swansea 1+ goals

69%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

56%

Swansea (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.49 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.19 + Swansea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Swansea attack 1.09 + Oxford United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oxford United scores more

41%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

32%

Oxford United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff