Swansea 2–1 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Norwich

Z. Vipotnik 69', 6'

J. Makama 42'

10/25/2025

Championship · Round 12Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Swansea36%

×Draw27%

Norwich37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.26

Swansea

1.23

Norwich

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

1.18

creates per match

1.30

1.22

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Swansea

1.18

Norwich

1.30

allows per match

Swansea

1.22

Norwich

1.28

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par

Norwich+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

63%

Swansea or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

64%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

15%

Norwich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

35%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

72%

Norwich 2+ goals

36%

Norwich 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

49%

Norwich (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 24 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.18 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Norwich attack 1.30 + Swansea defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Swansea scores more

36%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

37%

Norwich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Z. Vipotnik

Swansea · F

9.3

Match Events

6'

Z. Vipotnik↳ M. Stamenic

42'

J. Makama↳ J. Sargent

45+1'

Liam Cullen

46'

J. Wright← M. Topic

46'

J. Schlupp← O. Schwartau

65'

Pelle Mattsson

66'

Marko Stamenić

69'

Z. Vipotnik↳ J. Eom

70'

E. Marcondes← L. Gibbs

70'

M. Kvistgaarden← J. Sargent

74'

M. Widell← J. Eom

74'

G. Franco← M. Stamenic

79'

J. Fulton← L. Cullen

79'

A. Idah← Z. Vipotnik

82'

M. Jurasek← J. Makama

90+7'

Cameron Burgess

90+2'

K. Casey← Ronald

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaNorwich

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots7

0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.17

2Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots7

3On Target3

1Off Target3

5Blocked1

4Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

427Total Passes592

351Accurate Passes513

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-1.32Goals Prevented-1.32

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1