Norwich 5–1 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Swansea

E. Marcondes 86'

A. Crnac 84'

L. Dobbin 76'

J. Sargent 63', 44'

L. Cullen 62'

1/25/2025

Championship · Round 29Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Norwich44%

×Draw25%

Swansea31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.24

Norwich

1.55

Swansea

1.24

Norwich creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

1.49

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Norwich

1.49

Swansea

1.15

allows per match

Norwich

1.33

Swansea

1.61

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.04on par

Swansea-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

69%

Norwich or Swansea

75%

Draw or Swansea

56%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

22%

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

79%

Norwich 2+ goals

46%

Norwich 3+ goals

20%

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

35%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

59%

Swansea (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.33 · 32 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.61 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.49 + Swansea defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Swansea attack 1.15 + Norwich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norwich scores more

44%

level

25%

Swansea scores more

31%

Norwich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Marcondes

Norwich · M

8.9

Match Events

44'

J. Sargent↳ E. Marcondes

46'

A. Crnac← O. Hernández

46'

J. Stacey← K. Fisher

53'

Oscar Schwartau

61'

Emiliano Marcondes

62'

L. Cullen↳ J. Key

63'

J. Sargent↳ A. Crnac

65'

J. Sørensen← J. Sargent

65'

B. Chrisene← L. Mahovo

69'

Ž. Vipotnik← F. Bianchini

69'

S. Parker← M. Peart-Harris

76'

Eom Ji-Sung← L. Cullen

76'

L. Dobbin

78'

J. Córdoba← L. Dobbin

84'

A. Crnac↳ C. Doyle

85'

J. Fulton← Gonçalo Franco

85'

J. Ginnelly← Ronald

86'

E. Marcondes

90+4'

Jay Fulton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichSwansea

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots12

3.02Expected Goals (xG)1.33

7Corners8

10Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots12

8On Target3

6Off Target5

4Blocked4

16Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

457Total Passes525

393Accurate Passes467

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.57Goals Prevented-0.57

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Championship: Norwich 5–1 Swansea

Norwich beat Swansea 5-1 in Championship on January 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Sargent (44', 63'), L. Cullen (62'), L. Dobbin (76'), A. Crnac (84'), E. Marcondes (86').

Swansea controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.

Norwich vs Swansea — Championship 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Norwich 5–1 Swansea