Swansea 0–4 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City

S. Agüero 85'

David Silva 52', 27'

K. De Bruyne 34'

12/13/2017

Premier League · Round 17Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea25%

×Draw24%

Manchester City51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.69

Swansea

1.11

Manchester City

1.69

Manchester City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 200 away

1.27

creates per match

1.99

1.38

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Manchester City

1.99

allows per match

Swansea

1.38

Manchester City

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

Manchester City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

49%

Swansea or Manchester City

76%

Draw or Manchester City

75%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

10%

Manchester City wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

67%

Swansea 2+ goals

30%

Swansea 3+ goals

10%

Manchester City 1+ goals

82%

Manchester City 2+ goals

50%

Manchester City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

33%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Manchester City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Manchester City attack 1.99 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Swansea scores more

25%

level

24%

Manchester City scores more

51%

Manchester City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

David Silva

Manchester City · M

9.1

Match Events

27'

David Silva↳ Bernardo Silva

34'

K. De Bruyne

46'

T. Abraham← T. Carroll

52'

David Silva↳ R. Sterling

58'

Y. Touré← Fernandinho

65'

L. Narsingh← N. Dyer

73'

O. Zinchenko← F. Delph

74'

L. Fer← W. Bony

77'

İ. Gündoğan← K. De Bruyne

85'

S. Agüero↳ Y. Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaManchester

Overview

21%Possession79%

7Total Shots23

2Corners5

12Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots23

3On Target10

2Off Target10

2Blocked3

3Inside Box17

4Outside Box6

Passing

21%Possession79%

223Total Passes834

149Accurate Passes763

67%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Offsides1