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Manchester City vs Swansea — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
Gabriel Jesus 88'
Bernardo Silva 64'
K. De Bruyne 54'
R. Sterling 16'
David Silva 12'
4/22/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 35Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Manchester City67%
×Draw19%
Swansea14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.20
Swansea
0.88

Manchester City creates 150% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 74 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.70
Swansea
0.93

allows per match

Manchester City
0.83
Swansea
1.69

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
86%
Manchester City or Swansea
81%
Draw or Swansea
33%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
43%
Swansea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
89%
Manchester City 2+ goals
64%
Manchester City 3+ goals
37%
Swansea 1+ goals
59%
Swansea 2+ goals
22%
Swansea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
83%
Swansea (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.20

Swansea attack 0.93 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Manchester City scores more
67%
level
19%
Swansea scores more
14%

Manchester City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Bernardo SilvaManchester CityManchester City · F
8.3

Match Events

12'
David Silva
16'
R. Sterling↳ F. Delph
40'
Martin Olsson
54'
K. De Bruyne↳ Danilo
64'
Bernardo Silva
65'
Y. Touré← K. De Bruyne
65'
S. Clucas← Ki Sung-Yeung
67'
K. Bartley← F. Fernández
71'
P. Foden← R. Sterling
75'
B. Mendy← F. Delph
75'
T. Abraham← Martin Olsson
88'
Gabriel Jesus↳ Y. Touré

Possession

82%Manchester

Shots

19Manchester

Pass accuracy

57%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterSwansea
Overview
82%Possession18%
19Total Shots4
5Corners1
6Fouls8
Shots
19Total Shots4
12On Target1
4Off Target2
3Blocked1
12Inside Box2
7Outside Box2
Passing
82%Possession18%
1015Total Passes203
942Accurate Passes142
93%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
6Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Swansea

Manchester City beat Swansea 5-0 in Premier League on April 22, 2018.

Goals: David Silva (12'), R. Sterling (16'), K. De Bruyne (54'), Bernardo Silva (64'), Gabriel Jesus (88').

Manchester City controlled possession (82%) and registered 19 shots to 4.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.