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Swansea vs Luton — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luton
Luton
H. Cornick 72'
2/1/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Swansea47%
×Draw26%
Luton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.45
Luton
1.03

Swansea creates 41% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 21 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.31
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Luton
1.59

finishing

Swansea+0.05on par
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
73%
Swansea or Luton
74%
Draw or Luton
53%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
23%
Luton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
77%
Swansea 2+ goals
42%
Swansea 3+ goals
18%
Luton 1+ goals
64%
Luton 2+ goals
28%
Luton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
64%
Luton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 55 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.31 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Luton attack 0.85 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Swansea scores more
47%
level
26%
Luton scores more
27%

Swansea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. BreeLutonLuton · M
8.2

Match Events

10'
Flynn Downes
22'
K. Smith← K. Naughton
34'
Danny Hylton
63'
C. Jerome← D. Hylton
63'
H. Cornick← F. Onyedinma
72'
H. Cornick↳ C. Jerome
74'
J. Piroe← F. Downes
75'
Henri Lansbury
81'
L. Berry← H. Lansbury
88'
Reece Burke
89'
Luke Berry
89'
K. Joseph← R. Bennett
90+3'
Joël Piroe

Possession

72%Swansea

Shots

16Swansea

Pass accuracy

57%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaLuton
Overview
72%Possession28%
16Total Shots13
7Corners4
7Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots13
4On Target2
5Off Target6
7Blocked5
9Inside Box12
7Outside Box1
Passing
72%Possession28%
570Total Passes214
469Accurate Passes135
82%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls9
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Championship: Swansea 0–1 Luton

Luton beat Swansea 1-0 in Championship on February 1, 2022.

Goals: H. Cornick (72').

Swansea controlled possession (72%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.