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Luton vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
C. Morris 39'
3/4/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw26%
Swansea26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.47
Swansea
1.02

Luton creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 49 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Swansea
1.55

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Swansea-0.02on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Swansea
74%
Draw or Swansea
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
24%
Swansea wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
77%
Luton 2+ goals
43%
Luton 3+ goals
18%
Swansea 1+ goals
64%
Swansea 2+ goals
27%
Swansea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Swansea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Swansea defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Swansea attack 1.10 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
26%
Swansea scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
A. DoughtyLutonLuton · M
8.7

Match Events

28'
Luke Cundle
39'
C. Morris
45+3'
M. Whittaker← J. Allen
47'
Oliver Cooper
49'
Jordan Clark
68'
C. Woodrow← E. Adebayo
68'
L. Cullen← M. Sorinola
68'
L. Walsh← L. Cundle
77'
J. Paterson← O. Cooper
81'
P. Mpanzu← C. Morris
90+5'
Cauley Woodrow
90+5'
J. Taylor← J. Clark

Possession

42%Luton

Shots

16Luton

Pass accuracy

48%Luton

Statistics

LutonSwansea
Overview
42%Possession58%
16Total Shots10
4Corners3
17Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots10
4On Target3
8Off Target4
4Blocked3
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
335Total Passes476
228Accurate Passes349
68%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides5

Championship: Luton 1–0 Swansea

Luton beat Swansea 1-0 in Championship on March 4, 2023.

Goals: C. Morris (39').

Swansea controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.