Swansea 2–0 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Luton

A. Ayew 89'

C. Roberts 2'

12/5/2020

Championship · Round 16Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Swansea47%

×Draw26%

Luton27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.03

Swansea

1.45

Luton

1.03

Swansea creates 41% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 21 away

1.30

creates per match

0.85

1.21

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Swansea

1.30

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Luton

1.59

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

73%

Swansea or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

53%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

23%

Luton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

77%

Swansea 2+ goals

42%

Swansea 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

64%

Luton 2+ goals

28%

Luton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

64%

Luton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.30 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Luton attack 0.85 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Swansea scores more

47%

level

26%

Luton scores more

27%

Swansea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Ayew

Swansea · F

8.3

Match Events

2'

45'

52'

59'

61'

H. Cornick← K. Dewsbury-Hall

62'

E. Lee← G. Moncur

70'

70'

71'

71'

82'

83'

J. Latibeaudiere← M. Guehi

89'

A. Ayew↳ K. Smith

90+2'

V. Gyökeres← A. Ayew

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaLuton

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots7

2Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots7

5On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

5Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

441Total Passes521

322Accurate Passes376

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Swansea 2 – 0 Luton

Swansea beat Luton 2-0 in Championship on December 5, 2020.

Goals: C. Roberts (2'), A. Ayew (89').

Luton controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.

Swansea vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Swansea 2 – 0 Luton