Swansea 2–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

L. Fer 62'

G. Sigurðsson 59' (pen)

Diego Costa 81', 18'

9/11/2016

Premier League · Round 4Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Swansea32%

×Draw26%

Chelsea42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.47

Swansea

1.25

Chelsea

1.47

Chelsea creates 18% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 204 away

1.26

creates per match

1.59

1.35

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Swansea

1.26

Chelsea

1.59

allows per match

Swansea

1.35

Chelsea

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

58%

Swansea or Chelsea

74%

Draw or Chelsea

68%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

14%

Chelsea wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Chelsea 1+ goals

77%

Chelsea 2+ goals

43%

Chelsea 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

43%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 204 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.26 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Swansea defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swansea scores more

32%

level

26%

Chelsea scores more

42%

Chelsea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Willian

Chelsea · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

26'

41'

41'

42'

48'

59'

59'

G. SigurðssonPenalty

62'

L. Fer

76'

Fàbregas← N. Matić

77'

V. Moses← Willian

81'

Diego Costa

88'

M. Batshuayi← Oscar

89'

Eden Hazard

89'

Àngel Rangel← G. Sigurðsson

90'

John Terry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaChelsea

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots28

1Corners11

17Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots28

2On Target7

2Off Target12

2Blocked9

3Inside Box18

3Outside Box10

Passing

44%Possession56%

399Total Passes488

313Accurate Passes416

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3