Chelsea 3–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Swansea

Diego Costa 84'

Pedro 72'

Fàbregas 19'

Llorente 45+2'

2/25/2017

Premier League · Round 26Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Chelsea56%

×Draw24%

Swansea21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.95

Chelsea

1.73

Swansea

0.95

Chelsea creates 82% more chances

Season form · 204 home / 78 away

1.78

creates per match

0.94

0.96

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chelsea

1.78

Swansea

0.94

allows per match

Chelsea

0.96

Swansea

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

79%

Chelsea or Swansea

76%

Draw or Swansea

44%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

31%

Swansea wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

82%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Swansea 1+ goals

61%

Swansea 2+ goals

25%

Swansea 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

73%

Swansea (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.96 · 204 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Swansea defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Swansea attack 0.94 + Chelsea defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chelsea scores more

56%

level

24%

Swansea scores more

21%

Chelsea at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Fàbregas

Chelsea · M

9.0

Match Events

19'

Fàbregas↳ Pedro

35'

Kyle Naughton

36'

Martin Olsson

45+2'

Llorente↳ G. Sigurðsson

72'

Pedro↳ Fàbregas

75'

David Luiz

76'

N. Matić← Pedro

76'

J. Ayew← T. Carroll

80'

Leroy Fer

81'

L. Narsingh← W. Routledge

84'

Diego Costa↳ E. Hazard

85'

K. Zouma← V. Moses

85'

Willian← E. Hazard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaSwansea

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots3

8Corners1

11Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots3

5On Target2

6Off Target1

5Blocked0

10Inside Box2

6Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

734Total Passes382

636Accurate Passes291

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0