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Swansea vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Swansea
Swansea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
L. Cullen 10'
C. Robinson 79'
8/25/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Swansea43%
×Draw28%
Cardiff29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.29
Cardiff
1.01

Swansea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.22
Cardiff
0.85

allows per match

Swansea
1.17
Cardiff
1.36

finishing

Swansea+0.02on par
Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
71%
Swansea or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
57%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
19%
Cardiff wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
72%
Swansea 2+ goals
37%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Cardiff 1+ goals
64%
Cardiff 2+ goals
27%
Cardiff 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
60%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 17 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.22 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Swansea defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swansea scores more
43%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
29%

Swansea at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
L. CullenSwanseaSwansea · F
7.9

Match Events

10'
L. Cullen
59'
A. Abdulai← Eom Ji-Sung
59'
R. Colwill← A. Robertson
67'
J. Fulton← Gonçalo Franco
68'
Ž. Vipotnik← O. Cooper
69'
O. Tanner← Y. Meïté
73'
C. Robinson← W. Kanga
73'
A. El Ghazi← C. Willock
78'
K. Naughton← J. Key
78'
J. Allen← L. Cullen
79'
C. Robinson↳ O. Tanner
90+10'
Harry Darling
90+7'
Joe Allen
90+10'
Rubin Colwill
90+10'
Perry Ng

Possession

61%Swansea

Shots

9Swansea

Pass accuracy

54%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaCardiff
Overview
61%Possession39%
9Total Shots7
1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.68
2Corners5
14Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots7
4On Target3
4Off Target3
1Blocked1
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
503Total Passes303
425Accurate Passes220
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.13Goals Prevented0.13
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Swansea vs Cardiff

Swansea and Cardiff drew 1-1 in Championship on August 25, 2024.

Goals: L. Cullen (10'), C. Robinson (79').

Swansea controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.